Stop Fighting Yesterday’s War
A New Vision for American Foreign Policy
Look East, America: China, Not Russia, Demands Our Attention
Saturday, March 1st, 2025: By Walter Curt.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has held the world’s attention for far too long, and the United States appears wedged into a seemingly endless cycle of sanctions, aid packages, and diplomatic standoffs. That pattern must end. Russia is unquestionably an adversary, but it is not the colossal menace it once was during the Soviet era. Anyone who bothers to look at economic facts can see the truth: Russia’s GDP sits around $2 trillion—less than the GDP of Texas—while China’s GDP towers at a staggering $18 trillion. This puts things into perspective. The real existential threat to the United States is not Russia; it is China.
America’s foreign-policy priorities have long been shaped by Cold War memories. Our politicians still paint Russia as a formidable force capable of upending the global order. Yes, Moscow remains dangerous, and it can certainly sow chaos in its immediate neighborhood. But the belief that it rivals China’s far-reaching economic and technological might is simply wrong. In trying to outmaneuver Russia in Ukraine, we risk overextending our military and diplomatic resources where the return on investment is minimal compared to the looming showdown with Beijing.
Enter the messy diplomacy saga we’ve witnessed in recent weeks. After initially launching peace efforts in Riyadh without even inviting Ukraine and Europe, President Trump brought Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the White House for what was supposed to be a critical step forward. Instead, the February 28 Oval Office meeting blew up in public view. Trump, accompanied by Vice President JD Vance, hammered Zelenskyy for what they perceived as ingratitude for U.S. military and economic support. Zelenskyy, for his part, struck back with doubts about any deal negotiated with Putin, painting it as a surrender. The conversation deteriorated so badly that Trump ended the meeting, canceled a press conference, and took to Truth Social to air his frustrations.
Despite the drama, something crucial emerged from these failed talks: a potential economic angle that should not be ignored. Ukraine’s rare earth minerals are in play. These minerals are indispensable to modern technology, from smartphones to advanced weaponry. Securing these resources is in America’s best interest, and an agreement involving both Ukraine and Russia, however improbable it may sound, could create new economic opportunities and strategic leverage for us. It is time the United States embraces a more nuanced approach: use the lure of economic partnership to contain adversaries while shifting our primary focus toward the rapidly growing threat from China.
It might be tempting to dismiss any collaboration with Russia as naive. After all, distrust of the Kremlin runs deep, and with good reason. But the global landscape is changing, and our strategy must adapt or risk irrelevance. Russia shares a massive border with China, and any scenario that forces Moscow ever closer to Beijing is a huge loss for America. Encouraging a strategic realignment—however incremental—that peels Russia away from China could help prevent the emergence of a formidable, unified Sino-Russian axis. We cannot afford to overlook this opportunity simply because it conflicts with the conventional wisdom that Russia is the same towering adversary it was decades ago.
Of course, none of this means signing a blank check of friendship with Moscow. We must remain vigilant about Russia’s territorial ambitions and its disregard for international norms. But we also have to move beyond the rigid thinking that lumps every rival into one basket labeled “enemy.” Pragmatic diplomacy doesn’t reward trust unconditionally; it carefully trades privileges for assurances, all while preparing for bad-faith breaches. That’s the only realistic way to advance America’s long-term interests.
We need to hammer home the core truth here: China’s economic power dwarfs that of Russia, and Beijing’s ambitions span the globe—from Africa to Latin America and beyond. Ignoring that reality to fixate on a more limited conflict in Eastern Europe is a strategic error. President Trump, though polarizing, has underscored an essential point: Our resources should be focused where the payoff matters most. If reshaping Russia’s post-Soviet trajectory can help us keep China in check, then by all means we should seize that chance—however difficult. Otherwise, in a decade or two, we’ll look back and realize we spent trillions of dollars combating an enemy whose greatest weapon was bluff and bravado, even as our true challenger quietly built a worldwide network of influence and economic supremacy.
The next 20 years will not be a repeat of the last 50. We must abandon the outdated Cold War mindset that reflexively positions Russia as an all-powerful specter overshadowing American policy. Instead, we should be forging alliances that make sense for the future: ties that open markets, secure supply chains, and tighten the noose on China’s ambitions. Partnering carefully with both Ukraine and Russia—yes, both—on rare earth minerals could be a small but significant first step toward an economic realignment that serves American interests.
No one is suggesting we place absolute faith in Moscow. We’ve seen the Kremlin overreach and breach international norms repeatedly. But international relations aren’t a morality pageant; they’re about strategic advantage. If playing the long game means turning a former Cold War foe into a buffer against an even bigger rival, then we should seriously consider it. The stakes are too high to remain locked into reflexive hostilities.
Ultimately, the American people need to recognize that the world has shifted. Russia’s days of Soviet-era might are gone. China, meanwhile, marches forward with an economic and technological arsenal that dwarfs anything we’ve ever seen from Moscow. If we fail to adjust course, the United States will find itself outmaneuvered where it really counts, with Russia sliding effortlessly into China’s embrace. But if we act now—crafting policies that combine realism, economic foresight, and a healthy dose of caution—we can maintain our global leadership and shape a world order that protects American interests for decades to come.
